UNIT – I Basics of Probability theory & Distribution

Basic probability theory – rules for combining probabilities of events – Bernoulli’s trials – probabilities density and distribution functions – binomial distribution – expected value and standard deviation of binomial distribution.

UNIT – II Network Modelling and Reliability Analysis

Analysis of Series, Parallel, Series-Parallel networks – complex networks – decomposition method.

UNIT – III Reliability functions

Reliability functions f(t), F(t), R(t), h(t) and their relationships – exponential distribution – Expected value and standard deviation of exponential distribution – Bath tub curve – reliability analysis of series parallel networks using exponential distribution – reliability measures MTTF, MTTR, MTBF.

UNIT – IV Markov Modelling

Markov chains – concept of stochastic transitional probability Matrix, Evaluation of limiting state Probabilities. – Markov processes one component repairable system – time dependent probability evaluation using Laplace transform approach – evaluation of limiting state probabilities using STPM – two component repairable models.

UNIT – V Frequency & Duration Techniques

Frequency and duration concept – Evaluation of frequency of encountering state, mean cycletime, for one , two component repairable models – evaluation of cumulative probability and cumulative frequency of encountering of merged states.

UNIT – VI Generation System Reliability Analysis

Reliability model of a generation system– recursive relation for unit addition and removal – load modeling - Merging of generation load model – evaluation of transition rates for merged state model – cumulative Probability, cumulative frequency of failure evaluation – LOLP, LOLE.

UNIT – VII Composite Systems Reliability Analysis

Decompositions method – Reliability Indices – Weather Effects on Transmission Lines.

UNIT – VIII Distribution System and Reliability Analysis

Basic Concepts – Evaluation of Basic and performance reliability indices of radial networks.


1. Reliability Evaluation of Engg. System – R. Billinton, R.N.Allan, Plenum Press, New York, reprinted in India by B.S.Publications, 2007.

2. Reliability Evaluation of Power systems – R. Billinton, R.N.Allan, Pitman Advance Publishing Program, New York, reprinted in India by B.S.Publications, 2007.


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Reliability may be defined as the capacity of a designed, produced or maintained item to perform as required over time.
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